2021 French Open Men’s Singles Preview & Predictions
THE LOWDOWN
After the 2020 Roland-Garros was delayed until September last season due to the coronavirus pandemic it is a joy to see the second Grand Slam of the tennis season restored to its rightful place, albeit a week later than its usual last week of May starting point. The week delay this time around is to hopefully allow for more fans inside the Stade Roland-Garros in Paris, with up to 5,388 allocated visitors per day forecast. However, a curfew of 9pm local time will be in place for most of the tournament. The defending Men’s Singles champion is 13-time winner Rafael Nadal.
Rankings are correct at the time of writing.
THE WINNER – Rafael Nadal
There is simply no other player at Roland-Garros that can match world number three Rafael Nadal on this surface and particularly at this Grand Slam. The Spaniard has won an unassailable 13 career titles here at the French Open and, perhaps even more incredibly, has lost just twice in 15 years with a simply unfathomable 100-2 record. The only players to have ousted Nadal here since his winning debut as a qualifier back in 2005 was famously Robin Soderling in 2009, which paved the way for Roger Federer’s only title here, and Novak Djokovic in 2015.
Whilst 34-year-old Nadal is not getting any younger and his abilities are starting to drop from legendary status on other surfaces, especially indoor hard courts, he is the undisputed favourite for any clay-court tournament he enters and proved that just two weeks ago by winning the Italian Open for a record 10th time. He beat Djokovic in the final in Rome and completely dismantled the world number one in the Roland-Garros final last season to the point that his dominance here in Paris is almost ethereal. Nobody takes the phrase ‘winning is a habit’ more seriously than Nadal and barring an injury it is difficult to see anyone stopping the Spaniard.
THE OUTSIDER – Stefanos Tsitsipas
Given that world number one Novak Djokovic is in the same side of the draw as world number three Rafael Nadal, there is now no possibility of another Djokovic vs Nadal final in Paris. The 18-time Grand Slam champion is the obvious choice for a reason but his form on clay, despite reaching the Italian Open final, has been less convincing than the Serb would have liked coming into Roland-Garros. Djokovic can and should still beat anyone in the draw, especially with the likes of Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev not currently at their best, but there is another player who could prove to be Nadal’s biggest test this season.
World number Stefanos Tsitsipas has lost just three times on clay this year to show for two titles; his first Masters 1000 title at the Monte-Carlo Open and last week’s Lyon Open. Only Nadal, Djokovic and an inspired Casper Ruud have beaten the Greek on the clay swing and Nadal’s three-set victory in the Barcelona Open final could be a solid benchmark for a meeting between the two in Paris. Tsitsipas tops the win percentage table for 2021 with 33-8, which does not necessarily mean he can win his first Grand Slam here but does suggest he will not struggle to string wins together in the opening rounds and the 22-year-old is terribly tough to oust when he powers self-belief with momentum. It should take a bad day or a top four player to beat the Greek in Paris.
THE DARK HORSE – Alexander Zverev
There are a few likely suspects missing out in this pick for the dark horse of the competition with world number two Daniil Medvedev not enjoying the clay swing at all and world number four Dominic Thiem struggling badly to find his best form. The latter should be able to find the motivation needed to explode into action here in Paris but it is the player Thiem beat to win his first Grand Slam at last season’s US Open who looks the most dangerous outside the main contenders.
World number seven Alexander Zverev has struggled for consistency this year but an ATP 500 title at the Mexican Open and a second Madrid Masters title earlier this month is excellent returns for an 18-8 record this season so far. The German was emphatic in Madrid where the altitude better-suited his game and that allowed him to beat Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem in straight sets before a mature comeback final win over Matteo Berrettini. Nadal was able to exact revenge in Rome a week later but if 24-year-old Zverev had not met the Spaniard in the quarter-finals it would have been interesting to see who could beat him in this form. For a tall player Zverev enjoys this surface and whilst winning Roland-Garros is unlikely it would be a great shock to see him ousted by anyone outside of the top six – apart from our pick for the surprise package.
THE SURPRISE PACKAGE – Casper Ruud
World number 16 Casper Ruud would easily make the top 10 on a clay-only rankings table right now and the Norwegian claimed his second title on this surface just last week at the Geneva Open. 22-year-old Ruud has an excellent 20-6 record for 2021 so far and took the wise decision to follow a title win with a week off ahead of Roland-Garros – a Grand Slam he is well capable of winning one day. Ruud has stumbled a few times this season in matches he would have expected to win but he has quietly reached the semi-finals of his last four tournaments and the final, of course, last weekend. Ruud is one of just three players to have beaten in-form Stefanos Tsitsipas on clay this year and he will be a powerful, positive opponent to anyone outside of the top five in Paris this fortnight.
Special mention must go to Matteo Berrettini, who beat Casper Ruud in the semi-finals of the Madrid Open before falling to an impenetrable Alexander Zverev in the final. World number 10 Berrettini has reached the semi-finals of a Grand Slam before at the 2019 US Open and won the Serbia Open on clay earlier this season. The Italian’s service game is a thing to behold and he will be a crowd-pleaser with his love for a low-percentage shot in Paris. He is certainly capable of making another deep run at a Slam here.
THE RISING STAR – Jannik Sinner
19-year-old Jannik Sinner was our rising star for the Australian Open and were Roland-Garros a hard-court Grand Slam he would be considered a dark horse for sure. The Italian reached a career-high 17th in the ATP world rankings earlier this month and looks set to scrape into the ATP Finals at the end of the season with the hard-court season likely to see his greatest successes yet. Sinner won his last tournament of 2020 in Sofia and his first of this season at the Great Ocean Road Open in Melbourne and since then victories over Andrey Rublev, Aslan Karatsev and Roberto Bautista Agut (three, incredibly) make the teenager a creditable top 10 candidate this season. Sinner has looked like the real deal in matches against Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal this season and he should have beaten Hubert Hurkacz in the Miami Open final last month to claim a first Masters title on debut.
Keep an eye out in the draw for fellow 19-year-old Italian Lorenzo Musetti and 18-year-old Carlos Alcaraz with both players exceptional on clay already and beginning to live up to their hype. The Spaniard will be especially well-supported in Paris as a player with something of the Rafa Nadal about him.
