2021 ATP Cup Final – Team Russia vs Team Italy Preview & Prediction
THE FACTS
Where is Team Russia vs Team Italy taking place? Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
When is Team Russia vs Team Italy on and what time does it start? Saturday 6th February, 2021 – Not before 23:00 (UK)
Where can I get tickets for Team Russia vs Team Italy? Visit this link for ticket information
What channel is Team Russia vs Team Italy on? This match will not be televised live in the UK
Where can I stream Team Russia vs Team Italy in the UK? Amazon Prime Video subscribers can stream the match live
THE LOWDOWN
TEAM RUSSIA
- Team Russia’s incredible 1-2 punch of top 10 players Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev have won all six of their singles matches so far, including against Team Germany in the semi-finals.
- World number four Medvedev and number eight Rublev have yet to play a doubles match together this week seeing as they have not yet required a doubles decider and that could factor in if they have to do so for the first time in the final.
TEAM ITALY
- World number 10 Matteo Berrettini has been near gis very best form this week at the ATP Cup and has won all three of his singles matches in straight-sets to help take Team Italy to a first international final since the 1998 Davis Cup.
- Second option Fabio Fognini was instrumental, however, in taking Italy to the final as he beat Pablo Carreno Busta for the first time in eight attempts to put them 1-0 up against a Team Spain found wanting for the first time without Rafael Nadal.
THE PREDICTION
It was certainly plausible to see Team Russia at this year’s ATP Cup final as our previewed “dark horse” of the competition but the lack of Rafael Nadal finally told for Team Spain against Italy in the semi-finals to see an unlikely match-up here. Each of Andrey Rublev, Daniil Medvedev and Matteo Berrettini have won all three of their singles matches to reach this final but Fabio Fognini deserves special credit for pulling himself into form after a terrible start to the week, winning his last two matches and indeed a crucial doubles decider alongside Berrettini against Austria earlier this week.
In the first tie, Andrey Rublev will face this new-look Fabio Fognini after dropping his first set of the tournament to an in-form Jan-Lennard Struff. 33-year-old Fognini leads a very healthy-looking 5-1 head-to-head record over Rublev but the pair have not played since 2019, where Fognini was hovering around the top 10 and Rublev was just starting to kick into gear. Since then, the Italian has notably dropped off, despite his efforts this week, whilst Rublev has become something of a world-beater with an excellent record against the players below him in the rankings. This looks like it will be a fiery competition between two players constantly on the edge of frustration, but where Rublev utilises that emotion, Fognini often gets distracted by it. In a final, Rublev can find an extra 10% and should be able to beat Fognini in straight sets here to make it 1-0 to Russia.
Regardless of the score in the first match, this second fixture between Daniil Medvedev and Matteo Berrettini will be an excellent watch between two of the best performers we have seen this week. Medvedev won the only previous meeting between the two at the 2018 Indian Wells, where the Italian won the first set before falling to defeat. It could, perhaps, fall a similar way here if Medvedev’s last match with Alexander Zverev is anything to go by. The world number four can be ruthless with the lower-ranked players but perhaps needs a nudge against the upper echelons to get himself into his imperious groove. This match could well go to a deciding set with the way Berrettini has been performing this week but it will also be interesting to see how the Italian copes with the pressure, especially if Rublev has indeed made this match a must-win for Team Italy. Instead of opting for sets here, a tiebreak between two hard-to-break players in a Medvedev victory seems a slightly safer call.
That should see Team Russia take the final 2-0, exacting their clear strength in depth at this tournament as the only nation to enter with two top 10 players. If Fognini or Berrettini can upset that Russian rhythm to force a decider then things could truly change. Berrettini and Fognini have already played alongside each other this week in a win against Austria whilst Medvedev has only partnered with Rublev once as teenagers at the Moscow Open in 2016. The playing field should level slightly in the doubles and the chances of this going to a championship tiebreak then are fairly high. If this is the case though, the grit behind serial title-winners Medvedev and Rublev should tell when it counts to see Team Russia well-deserved champions of the ATP Cup.
