MMA Preview – Paul Craig vs Caio Borralho at UFC 301
Click here for today’s sports betting tips from our expert analysts!
PAUL CRAIG VS CAIO BORRALHO FACTS
When is UFC 301? Sunday 5th May, 2024 - 01:00 (UK)
Where is UFC 301? Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 301? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 301
What channel is UFC 301 on? TNT Sports 1
Where can I stream UFC 301? TNT Sports subscribers can stream the fight online via the TNT Sports website and Discovery+
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
PAUL CRAIG VS CAIO BORRALHO LOWDOWN
After two fights down at middleweight, we have no idea how much potential Paul Craig (17-7-1) has in the division especially with retirement looming. He made an immaculate entrance by knocking out the jiu-jitsu wizard Andre Muniz (2023) to earn a ‘Performance of the Night’ bonus. He then took on Brendan Allen (2023) and ended up getting out grappled and submitted in the third round.
Caio Borralho (15-1(1)) on the other hand has buckets of potential. After two successful showings on the Contender Series, he opened his account with three decision wins over Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (2022), Armen Petrosyan (2022) and Makhmud Muradov (2022). He then submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk (2023) before earning another decision over Abus Magomedov (2023 to extend his impressive unbeaten streak to 15.
PAUL CRAIG VS CAIO BORRALHO PREDICTION
Like most of Craig’s fights, the outcome depends on whether his opponent can avoid getting trapped in his guard. Unless Borralho has the confidence or ego to pit his jiu-jitsu against Craig’s, we are backing him to come out of this unscathed.
There are not many fighters that are as dangerous as Craig off their back, and he will try and create a scramble to drag the fight to the ground. However, Borralho’s grappling is too good to be taken down and forced into a threatening position.
Considering the wide odds and Craig's track record, a small punt is worth it, but we expect the Brazilian to defend the takedowns, eat a few kicks but ultimately dominate on the feet to win a decision at least.
Prediction: Borralho via Decision
Value Bet: Craig via Submission
