MMA Preview – Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington 2 at UFC 268
KAMARU USMAN VS COLBY COVINGTON FACTS
When is UFC 268? Sunday 7th November, 2021 - 00:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 268? Madison Square Garden, New York (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 268? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 268
What channel is UFC 268 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC 268? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
KAMARU USMAN VS COLBY COVINGTON LOWDOWN
The pound-for-pound king Kamaru Usman (19-1) headlines Madison Square Garden for his fifth title defence and it is great to see a UFC champion so active. It is very rare these days, but you can see why he keeps stepping back in that cage because he is getting better and better. He worked his way to the welterweight title with his wrestling which did not earn him many fans. However, his stand-up war and TKO over the villain Colby Covington in December 2019 got people on board. He then played it safe against Jorge Masvidal who took the fight on short notice which got people sipping the ‘haterade’ again, but his last two performances have solidified him as one of the most impressive champions in the UFC. He has proven his striking is a threat to anyone knocking out Gilbert Burns and then pulling off arguably the most impressive performance of the year in knocking Masvidal out cold in their rematch back in April.
Like Usman, Colby Covington (16-2) stormed up the welterweight ranks with his wrestling and relentless pace. The champ snapped a dominant run of seven fights including unanimous decisions over Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos and Robbie Lawler. After that humbling and hard-fought loss, Covington has only fought once and that was another dominant display over Tyron Woodley. It was a typically limp display from the former champion, but Covington would not have given him a choice anyway and ended up breaking his rib in the fifth round.
KAMARU USMAN VS COLBY COVINGTON PREDICTION
Usman’s striking has come on leaps and bounds but it is still very basic. His straight right hand is as crisp as it gets, and it now has the reputation of one-punch knockout power.
That power was the difference in their first fight. The theme of our breakdown for their first meeting was how evenly match they were. Their fighting style, background, cardio, record and even their striking and grappling stats. On paper, it was the most evenly-match title fight we have seen in the UFC and that is how the fight played out.
Their wrestling cancelled each other out forcing a stand-up battle and it was a back-and-forth war. Usman landed 175 out of 360 significant strikes and Covington landed 143 out of his 395 thrown. Like all Covington fights, he threw more volume, but Usman was more accurate and more impactful landing two knockdowns. He attacked the body and that power accumulated until he broke Covington’s jaw in the fifth round.
Covington did not respect Usman’s power and we do not expect him to stand and trade for five rounds again. He will maintain his suffocating volume, but we may see him level change in between combinations for a takedown. He will utilise this to sway the judges as he is unlikely to keep Usman down even if he can get him there.
Covington’s best weapon will be the element of surprise. As we saw with Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier. Cormier is the better wrestler, but Jones took him down easily as Cormier did not see it coming.
Covington is still Usman’s biggest threat to the title at the moment and considering the odds, he is worth a punt as we can see a tight decision. However, Usman is too smart to play the same game and be unprepared for a different strategy from Covington.
After knocking Masvidal out, we can see Usman getting arrogant with his hands, thinking he is a better striker than he is. If he gets complacent, Covington can capitalize and catch him with a takedown or head kick.
We are backing Usman, but we think this will go to the bell this time as they will not risk absorbing as much damage as their last fight. This should be another exciting scrap and we should see the best version of Covington which will create another spectacle.
Prediction: Usman via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Covington via Decision
