MMA Preview – Julian Erosa vs Christian Rodriguez at UFC on ESPN 59
Click here for today’s sports betting tips from our expert analysts!
JULIAN EROSA VS CHRISTIAN RODRIGUEZ FACTS
When is UFC on ESPN 59? Sunday 14th July, 2024 - 01:00 (UK)
Where is UFC on ESPN 59? Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC on ESPN 59? Click here to buy tickets for UFC Fight Night
What channel is UFC on ESPN 59 on? TNT Sports 1
Where can I stream UFC on ESPN 59? TNT Sports subscribers can stream the fight online via the TNT Sports website and Discovery+
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
JULIAN EROSA VS CHRISTIAN RODRIGUEZ LOWDOWN
Julian Erosa’s (29-11) last few UFC fights sum up his inconsistent career. He fought three times in 2022 earning decent decisions over Steven Peterson and Hakeem Dawodu. He then got knocked out by a spectacular head kick from Alex Caceres. He returned last year and suffered his seventh career knockout courtesy of Fernando Padillo, but then managed to submit Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Ricardo Ramos back in April taking his overall UFC tally to 7-7.
Christian Rodriguez (11-1) has been more consistent and despite losing his UFC debut to Jonathan Pearce (2022), he has won four straight and found a niche of upsetting prospects. He submitted Josh Weems (2022) and has gone on to outpoint Raul Rosas Jr (2023), Cameron Saaiman (2023) and Isaac Dulgarian (2024) bumping his UFC record up to 4-1.
JULIAN EROSA VS CHRISTIAN RODRIGUEZ PREDICTION
Rodriguez has earnt his UFC success with quality striking and ability to not prevent the takedown but absorb them and finish the fights stronger with his cardio. He has been taken down 18 times in five fights, seven of those were by Dulagrian, but he has still managed to find a way to win.
He now steps up to featherweight which will only make it harder to defend the takedown. Erosa does his best work on the feet and on the ground with his jiu-jitsu, but he also has the wrestling to dump Rodriguez to the canvas.
Erosa will have a three-inch reach and six-inch height advantage which help with body locks and tying up submissions. He can also leverage his range by picking Rodriguez apart from range with his jab and kicks before sealing the takedown.
Combine this with his experience, he holds all the value as the underdog. However, considering his inconsistency and the fact that this is at elevation, we can Rodriguez giving up the first round but coming back in the second and third to snatch a decision.
Prediction: Rodriguez via Decision
Value Bet: Erosa via Decision
