MMA Preview – Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje 2 at UFC 291
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DUSTIN POIRIER VS JUSTIN GAETHJE FACTS
When is UFC 291? Sunday 30th July, 2023 - 00:00 (UK)
Where is UFC 291? Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 291? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 291
What channel is UFC 291 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 291? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
DUSTIN POIRIER VS JUSTIN GAETHJE LOWDOWN
Dustin Poirier’s (25-2) last 11 fights have all been against top 10 ranked animals and he has only lost twice. They were both for the title when he got submitted by Khabib Nurmagomedov (2019) and Charles Oliveira (2021). Surrounding those fights he has put on wars beating some of the best fighters in the world. In between the losses he outpointed Dan Hooker (2020) and TKO’d Conor McGregor twice (2021). He is coming off another spectacle which was with Michael Chandler in November last year submitting him in the third round.
It only feels right that he meets Justin Gaethje (15-3(1)) again. Since their battle where Poirier walked away with the TKO, they have travelled a very similar path with Gaethje also only losing and getting submitted by Nurmagomedov (2020) and Oliveira (2022) in title fights. Leading up to his first shot, he knocked out James Vick (2018), Edson Barboza (2019), Donald Cerrone (2019) and Tony Ferguson (2020). In between the losses he also came out on top in a typical war with Chandler (2021) and now he is coming off a majority decision win over Rafael Fiziev back in March.
DUSTIN POIRIER VS JUSTIN GAETHJE PREDICTION
In their first meeting Poirier landed 174 significant strikes landing at 49% accuracy. Gaethje landed 115 with 54% accuracy and also fended off all five of Poirier’s takedown attempts. Poirier walked away with the knockout, but they are so evenly matched.
We expect another technical war of the feet with a few takedown attempts thrown in to set up their offence. Poirier is more likely to shoot, but Gaethje is the better wrestler, he just has not attempted one until his last fight.
Do not expect quite the war of the first meeting, they will have made adjustments and this is at altitude so the pace will be slower in the championship rounds should it reach them. We also have a feeling Gaethje, may try throw in a takedown attempt or two here which will slow the pace down.
Poirier is more technical, but Gaethje continues to refine and polish his game. He is more powerful and we expect him to devise a strategy around his leg kicks. He only needs to land a few to slow Poirier down, but he will run the risk of getting countered. We also expect Poirier to adapt his game to take less damage should the opportunity to get the fight to the floor, he will pounce on it.
Like Gaethje, Poirier is incredibly durable and will have the edge in cardio which on paper, is the defining factor in Salt Lake City. We are leaning towards Poirier, but if you are betting, back the underdog who seems more motivated.
Prediction: Poirier via Decision
Value bet: Gaethje to win
