MMA Preview – Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje at UFC 274
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CHARLES OLIVEIRA VS JUSTIN GAETHJE FACTS
When is UFC 274? Sunday 8th May, 2022 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 274? Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 274? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 274
What channel is UFC 274 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 274? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
CHARLES OLIVEIRA VS JUSTIN GAETHJE LOWDOWN
It has taken Charles Oliveira (32-8(1)) a hot minute to reach his prime, but here he is, 29 fights deep into his UFC career and making his second defence of the lightweight strap. He is on a 10-fight win streak which includes nine finishes. The decision was unsurprisingly against the zombie Tony Ferguson (2020) but resumed his killer ways by smoking Michael Chandler (2021) in the title fight with a majestic knockout which fittingly broke the record for the most finishes in the UFC with 17. He then made his first defence seven months later against Dustin Poirier (2021) and did not look like an underdog that night slipping onto Poirier’s back to cinch a ruthless rear-naked choke and the 20th submission of his career.
Justin Gaethje (23-3) also took a while to reach his prime which is mainly thanks to Trevor Wittman who has dovetailed a much-needed mental game into his arsenal. He has only lost once in his last six which was his first title fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov getting submitted in the second round. Leading up to that, he buried James Vick (2018), Edson Barboza (2019), Donald Cerrone (2019) and became the first man to TKO Tony Ferguson (2020). After the loss to Khabib he put on that unforgettable battle with Michael Chandler (2021) earning a rare decision to set up this deserved title shot.
CHARLES OLIVEIRA VS JUSTIN GAETHJE PREDICTION
Oliveira has become a top-tier striker to compliment his jiu-jitsu and the technique and accuracy of his Muay Thai and boxing has become a thing of beauty. He can hang with anyone now, but he is taking on arguably the most dangerous striker in the division and Gaethje’s leg kicks and clubs for hands can completely change the course of the fight with just a few clean blows.
The only hole in Gaethje’s game is his jiu-jitsu and he is coming up against the most prolific submission artist in the UFC. His NCAA Division 1 wrestling has been enough to force striking contests besides Khabib and if it is not enough to prevent Oliveira taking him down, it will only be a matter of time before the Brazilian extends his record.
Gaethje will open up with his thunderous leg kicks to disable Oliveira while following up with ferocious hooks. The champ’s Muay Thai style will be crucial to keeping the weight off his front foot and countering down the pipe with his four-inch reach advantage. Oliveira will also be generous with his leg kicks and teep kicks down the middle to keep the distance.
We expect this to be a cerebral war. Gaethje has the power to cripple Oliveira with leg kicks and find a knockout blow early. Oliveira on the other hand has the technique to cause serious damage but a knockout will only be likely late in the fight. His best path to a finish is tying Gaethje up and he does not even need to get him on the ground to find a submission.
A finish is very likely here. Gaethje is expected to walk Oliveira who will have the confidence to exchange. Gaethje has the wrestling to fend off orthodox takedown attempts, so we expect Oliveira to be corked ready to counter to create a scramble to close the distance. There is value on a Gaethje knockout, but there will be less resistance to an Oliveira submission only needing the slightest of openings to pounce on the neck.
Prediction: Oliveira via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Gaethje via KO/TKO
