The Stats Zone
April 30 2024, 01:38 · Alex Sarwar

Borussia Dortmund vs PSG Preview & Prediction | 2023-24 UEFA Champions League | Semi-Final

Borussia Dortmund vs PSG Preview & Prediction | 2023-24 UEFA Champions League | Semi-Final
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THE FACTS

When is Borussia Dortmund vs PSG on and what time does it start? Borussia Dortmund vs PSG will take place on Wednesday 1st May, 2024 – 20:00 (UK)

Where can I get tickets for Borussia Dortmund vs PSG? Visit each club’s official website for the latest ticket information

What channel is Borussia Dortmund vs PSG on in the UK? Borussia Dortmund vs PSG will be televised live on TNT Sports in the UK

Where can I stream Borussia Dortmund vs PSG in the UK? Borussia Dortmund vs PSG can be streamed live on the discovery+

THE LOWDOWN

BORUSSIA DORTMUND

Borussia Dortmund know all about winning a Champions League semi-final against the odds to book their place in a Wembley final. That’s exactly what they did back in 2013 under Jurgen Klopp, blowing away Spanish giants Real Madrid 4-1 at home in the first-leg before withstanding a second-leg barrage to win 3-4 on aggregate. Fast-forward to 2024 and Edin Terzic’s men will be looking to channel the spirit of that side against PSG with their opponents favourites once again.

The 1996-97 Champions League winners demonstrated their powers of recovery and that of home advantage vs Atletico Madrid in their quarter-final battle. Trailing 2-1 following the first-leg, Borussia Dortmund stunned the visitors with a five-minute first-half brace to turn the tie on its head. Although Atletico came back strongly after the break to score two goals of their own, Dortmund responded again, netting in the 71st and 74th minute to retake the lead and eventually hold out for a thrilling 5-4 win on aggregate.

PSG

For the third time in the past five seasons, PSG have made it to the Champions League semi-final stage and now they’ll be aiming to take that next big step, reaching the final for the first time since 2020. This is seen by many as the best chance PSG may ever have to win European football’s biggest prize with their prized asset Kylian Mbappe, arguably the best player in the world right now, looking increasingly likely to leave in the summer.

The Parisians have every reason to be confident against a side they have already beaten in this season’s Champions League. The two clubs met in the group stage with PSG triumphing 2-0 in France and drawing in Dortmund. Momentum within the visiting camp must also be extremely high following their dramatic quarter-final comeback away at Barcelona. Trailing by two goals to three after the first-leg, PSG ruthlessly capitalised on Xavi’s side being reduced to ten-men just before the half-hour mark with the score at 1-0. The visitors went on to rack up four goals without reply, sealing a 4-6 aggregate victory and progression to the semi-finals. Since then, PSG have also wrapped up the Ligue 1 title with three games to spare.

THE TEAM NEWS

BORUSSIA DORTMUND

The hosts are expected to be without both full-back Ramy Bensebaini and striker Sebastien Haller, with the two nursing injuries. However, defenders Mats Hummels and Ian Maatsen are likely to be passed fit in what would be a huge boost to the side. The big question mark regarding team selection is which attacking midfielders are picked to start behind forward Niclas Fullkrug. Jadon Sancho, Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi got the nod against Atletico, but with Donyell Malen back available, the Dutchman may well get the nod out wide over Adeyemi.

PREDICTED XI (4-2-3-1): Kobel; Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen; Sabitzer, Can; Malen, Brandt, Sancho; Fullkrug

UNAVAILABLE: Bensebaini (Injured), Haller (Injured)

QUESTIONABLE: Hummels (Injured), Maatsen (Injured)

PSG

Luis Enrique has an almost fully fit squad to choose from for the trip to Germany. Defender Presnel Kimpembe is the only confirmed absentee. Enrique’s penchant to rotate makes it difficult to predict his starting XI, but key to his thinking will be how to get the best out of star man Mbappe. The French striker operated on the left-hand-side of a front three in the Parisians’ most recent victory over Borussia Dortmund and could do the same again here, with Goncalo Ramos operating centrally. Warren Zaire-Emery, the 18-year-old wonderkid who has lit up the French capital this season, is likely battling with Manuel Ugarte for a starting spot in the centre of midfield.

PREDICTED XI (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Hernandez, Mendes; Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Ruiz; Dembele, Ramos, Mbappe

UNAVAILABLE: Kimpembe (Injured)

QUESTIONABLE:

THE KEY STATS

  • Borussia Dortmund have won their last two UEFA competition semi-final ties. Their most recent in the 2012-13 Champions League against Real Madrid and also in the 2001-02 UEFA Cup against AC Milan.
  • Borussia Dortmund have lost only one of their previous eight home matches in UEFA competition semi-finals (W5 D2). The only defeat was in the first leg of their 1994-95 UEFA Cup tie against Juventus (L 2-1), they went on to draw 2-2 in the second leg of that encounter.
  • Borussia Dortmund’s only previous UEFA competition semi-final against a French team was in the 1992-93 UEFA Cup when they reached the final after beating Auxerre on penalties following a 2-2 draw on aggregate (2-0 h, 0-2 a).
  • Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last ten Champions League matches at home (W6 D4).
  • Borussia Dortmund have lost only two of their previous 12 UEFA competition matches at home against French teams (W6 D4). Their home record against PSG is (W1 D2).
  • PSG are through to their fourth Champions League semi-final. They did not reach the semi-finals in the European Cup era.
  • PSG have won only one of their previous five matches in the Champions League semi-finals. That was a 3-0 victory against RB Leipzig in Lisbon in the 2019-20 tournament when the semi-finals were played as a one-off match rather than two legs. They lost both legs of their other two semi-finals - in 1994-95 vs AC Milan (0-1 h 0-2 a) and 2020-21 vs Man City (1-2 h 0-2 a).
  • PSG have lost only one of their previous six UEFA competition matches against Borussia Dortmund (W2 D3).
  • PSG won the only previous UEFA competition two-legged tie between these two teams. That was a 3-2 aggregate victory in the 2019-20 Champions League round of 16 (1-2 a 2-0 h).
  • PSG have only failed to score in two of their last 26 Champions League matches.

THE PREDICTION

Neither of these two teams are the strongest defensively, but each are capable of scoring goals and when taking into account of quality of attacking players on show for both sides in this semi-final first-leg, we may be in for a high-scoring encounter. Borussia Dortmund won’t be afraid to take the game to PSG at home, pushing bodies forward to try and gain that crucial advantage, but the potentially devastating threat of Mbappe and Dembele on the counter-attack is clear for all to see. This fixture in the group stage ended in a 1-1 draw, whilst both legs of Borussia Dortmund and PSG’s respective quarter-finals ended with both teams scoring. Regardless of whether either club can gain an aggregate advantage going into the second-leg, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals has to be favoured.

TIP: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE AND OVER 2.5 GOALS