The Stats Zone
June 18 2024, 20:25 · Alex Lawes

Spain vs Italy Preview & Prediction | UEFA EURO 2024 | Group Stage

Spain vs Italy Preview & Prediction | UEFA EURO 2024 | Group Stage
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Now then, this is a ‘proper tournament’ match. Two of Europe’s finest clashing in Group B of UEFA EURO 2024, as they did in the semi-finals of UEFA EURO 2020, Round of 16 of UEFA EURO 2016, group stage and final of UEFA EURO 2012 and the quarter-finals of UEFA EURO 2008.

KICK-OFF DATE/TIME: Thursday 20th June, 2024 - UK – 8:00pm / US EST – 3:00pm / US PST – 1:00pm

HOW TO WATCH ON TV: UK – ITV / US – FOX

HOW TO WATCH ONLINE: UK – ITVX / US – VIX

SPAIN PREVIEW: PUTTING THE FOOT DOWN

The three-time European champions began their UEFA EURO 2024 campaign with what, on paper, would appear an emphatic and convincing demolition of a strong and experienced Croatian side. Winning 3-0 with all three goals in the first-half, Spain did play some good stuff but did also concede several big chances throughout the game.

La Furia Roja, under the management of Luis de la Fuente, play a more entertaining and aggressive style of football than under predecessor Luis Enrique with an intent on getting the ball forward a bit quicker using more direct methods and utilising the pace of both Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams out wide.

ITALY PREVIEW: OVERCOMING UNCERTAINTIES

The defending champions of the UEFA European Championships, Italy, began their tournament in the worst possible way against Albania on Saturday when they conceded after 23 seconds – the quickest goal in EURO history. However, they had turned the game round in 15 minutes and managed to hold off a direct and aggressive opposition.

The Azzurri are not the same vintage of Italy teams in the past but, quite simply, whenever Italy do go on to win silverware; they were never the pre-tournament favourites or one of the leading fancied sides. Luciano Spalletti is their biggest asset and will seek to lay down a marker against a fellow heavyweight of European football.

SPAIN TEAM NEWS: ALVARO MORATA A POSSIBLE DOUBT

Spain were without defender Aymeric Laporte for their opening game against Croatia and he remains a doubt for this one with Robin Le Normand and Nacho Fernandez likely to remain alongside each other, whilst captain and opening goal scorer from the other day Alvaro Morata is also a doubt but he is expected to remain in their line-up.

PREDICTED XI (4-3-3): Unai Simon; Dani Carvajal, Le Normand, Nacho, Cucurella; Pedri, Rodri, Fabian Ruiz; Lamine Yamal, Alvaro Morata, Nico Williams

UNAVAILABLE:

QUESTIONABLE: Laporte (Injured), Alvaro Morata (Injured)

ITALY TEAM NEWS: LIKELY TO BE UNCHANGED

Midfield trio Nicolo Fagioli, Davide Frattesi and Nicolo Barella all missed training last week and were doubts for their game against Albania but the latter two both started and are expected to keep their place in the eleven, albeit Barella remains a doubt again.

PREDICTED XI (4-2-3-1): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Calafiori, Dimarco; Jorginho, Barella; Frattesi, Pellegrini, Chiesa; Scamacca

UNAVAILABLE:

QUESTIONABLE: Barella (Injured), Fagioli (Injured)

KEY STATS

  • This is the eighth EURO final tournament match between Spain and Italy. No two teams have met as many times at the finals - this will also be the fifth consecutive EURO final tournament in which they have faced each other.
  • Four of the previous seven EURO final tournament matches between Italy and Spain finished level. Including the most recent in the semi-finals of EURO 2020 when Italy progressed via a penalty-shoot out after the match finished 1-1.
  • Excluding penalty shoot-outs, Italy’s only defeat in seven EURO final tournament matches against Spain was in the EURO 2012 final.
  • Italy won 1-0 against Spain in the EURO 1988 group stage in Frankfurt in their only previous EURO final tournament meeting in Germany.
  • The overall head-to-head record in 40 previous meetings between the two teams is: Italy wins-11, Draws-13, Spain wins-13. The Spanish won their two most recent encounters, both in the semi-finals of the UEFA Nations League (W 2-1 in 2021 and W 2-1 in 2023).
  • Spain have lost only one of their last 13 EURO group stage matches (W9 D3).
  • Excluding penalty shoot-outs, Spain have lost only two of their last 23 EURO matches (W14 D7).
  • Spain have won eight and drawn one of their last nine competitive matches.
  • Spain have kept seven clean sheets in their last nine EURO group stage matches.
  • Spain have only failed to score in one of their last 13 EURO group stage matches.
  • Spain have scored three or more goals in six of their last seven matches.
  • Spain are aiming to start a EURO final tournament with two successive wins for only the third time. They previously achieved the feat in 2008 and 2016.
  • Spain have been losing at half-time in only one of their last 22 EURO group stage matches.
  • Against Croatia, Álvaro Morata became the first player to score in three EURO final tournaments for Spain (2016, 2020, 2024).
  • Italy have lost only three of their 28 EURO group stage matches (W16 D9).
  • Italy have won seven of their last eight EURO group stage matches (L1).
  • Italy are aiming to start a EURO final tournament with two successive wins for the third edition in a row and the fourth time overall.
  • The last time Italy conceded more than one goal in a EURO group match was in a 3-0 defeat against the Netherlands in the 2008 tournament.
  • Excluding penalty shoot-outs, Italy are unbeaten in their last ten EURO matches (W7 D3). Equalling their longest run without losing a match in EURO history (1968-1988).
  • Italy have scored in ten successive EURO matches. This is their longest sequence of consecutive matches with a goal scored in EURO history.
  • Italy have scored the first goal in ten of their last 11 EURO group stage matches.
  • Italy have lost only one of their last 12 international matches (W8 D3).
  • Italy have not been losing at half-time in their last 12 EURO group matches. The last time they trailed at half-time in a group match was in 2008 against the Netherlands.

SPAIN VS ITALY PREDICTION

This one could one or two ways. Spain and Italy are both progressive footballing sides and that could lead to a genuinely thrilling and entertaining encounter but it could also mean the two sides put too much focus on retaining possession and building-up from the back thus leading to the two teams cancelling each other out. The likelihood, though, is that Spain, who did show defensive lapses against the Croats and Italy, who will be very much on the front foot, produce something a little more entertaining than that with both teams scoring worth a bet.

SPAIN VS ITALY TIP: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE