Spain vs France Preview & Prediction | UEFA EURO 2024 | Semi-Final

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In Munich on Tuesday, three-time European champions Spain take on the team has become Europe’s so-called ‘tournament team’ in France as they both bid for another UEFA European Championship final.

KICK-OFF DATE/TIME: Tuesday 9^th July, 2024 - UK – 8:00pm / US ET – 3:00pm / US PT – 12:00pm

HOW TO WATCH ON TV: UK – BBC / US – FOX

HOW TO WATCH ONLINE: UK – BBC iPlayer / US – ViX

SPAIN PREVIEW: STARTING TO TRUST LA ROJA

Throughout the tournament, Spain have been the best and most convincing side, especially on the ball and in attack, but reservations have remained. Profligacy in attack and being fairly untested and potentially unreliable at the back would have been reasons to be concerned but as each game goes by, those worries and concerns lessen.

Unai Simon, Spain’s number one at UEFA EURO 2024, was magnificent in their quarter-final defeat of hosts Germany and La Roja, when under pressure, found their way through with a last gasp Mikel Merino winner in extra-time. They have scored 12 goals and conceded just two in their five matches so far but, perhaps until they win it, questions will remain.

FRANCE PREVIEW: PLAYING POORLY BUT GETTING THROUGH

Alternatively, and almost paradoxically, France have played poorly throughout and have stumbled their way into the semi-finals but that is what Didier Deschamps’ Les Bleus do and there will therefore be just cause to be positive ahead of their semi-finals as they seek to win their third international trophy in six years after the FIFA World Cup and UEFA Nations League.

France have scored just three goals in their five matches so far with two of those goals being scored by opposition players and the other being a penalty notched by Kylian Mbappe in a 1-1 draw against Poland. It has been unremarkable and underwhelming – and yet the French remain unbeaten despite having played the likes of Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium and Portugal.

SPAIN TEAM NEWS: DEFENSIVE HEADACHES

It has been quite a settled eleven for Luis de la Fuente but he has some suspension issues for this one. In an ideal world, Nacho Fernandez would likely have been understudy to the suspended Dani Carvajal but the fact that Robin Le Normand is also unavailable means that Nacho will probably play at the heart of the defence alongside Aymeric Laporte with 38-year-old Jesus Navas coming in at right-back.

Another issue for Spain to deal with is the injury to Pedri that occurred early on against Germany but his replacement, Dani Olmo, is in excellent form at the moment.

PREDICTED XI (4-3-3): Unai Simon; Jesus Navas, Nacho, Laporte, Cucurella; Dani Olmo, Rodri, Fabian Ruiz; Lamine Yamal, Alvaro Morata, Nico Williams

UNAVAILABLE: Le Normand (Suspended), Dani Carvajal (Suspended), Pedri (Injured)

QUESTIONABLE:

FRANCE TEAM NEWS: RABIOT BACK IN

Adrien Rabiot is likely to come back into the France eleven for this semi-final. The Juventus midfielder missed the quarter-final with Portugal due to suspension but he should return in place of Eduardo Camavinga. The other selection issue for Deschamps will be Kylian Mbappe.

The France captain is suffering with a broken nose and is clearly uncomfortable in his mask and was substituted in extra-time against the Portuguese. It would remain a shock, though, to see Mbappe not feature from the start against Spain.

Ousmane Dembele's impressive impact off the bench against Portugal, which even led to him being named Player of the Match, may have given Deschamps a dilemma in attack but Dembele's previous performances from the start may mean that Deschamps sees Dembele as what he was against Portugal - an impact player.

PREDICTED XI (4-1-2-1-2): Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Hernandez; Tchouameni; Kante, Rabiot; Griezmann; Mbappe, Thuram

UNAVAILABLE:

QUESTIONABLE: Mbappe (Injured)

KEY STATS

• Spain and France have met four times previously in EURO final tournaments, three of which were knockout matches. France defeated Spain in the final in 1984 and repeated the feat in the EURO 2000 quarter-finals on the way to winning their second EURO title. Spain edged out France at the same stage of the tournament in 2012 and then went on to win their second successive title. Their only other EURO final tournament encounter was a 1-1 draw in the group stage at EURO 1996.
• The most recent meeting between the two teams was in the UEFA Nations League final in October 2021, when France came from behind to win 2-1 courtesy of Kylian Mbappé’s 80th-minute winner.
• Only one of the last 12 international matches between Spain and France has finished level and only one of their previous 36 meetings has finished without a goal being scored (that was a friendly in Barcelona in January 1963).
• Spain have been successful in four of their previous five EURO semi-final ties, with their only exit at this stage being their penalty shoot-out defeat against Italy at EURO 2020.
• Four of Spain’s five EURO semi-final ties have required extra-time and three of those were eventually decided by a penalty shoot-out.
• Spain’s last victory in a EURO semi-final tie was at EURO 2012 when they edged out Portugal 4-2 on penalties on their way to winning their third EURO title.
• Spain have won five successive EURO matches for the first time (excluding penalty shoot-outs). No team has won six successive matches in EURO final tournament history without requiring a penalty shoot-out.
• Excluding penalty shoot-outs, Spain have lost only two of their last 27 EURO matches (W18 D7).
• Excluding penalty shoot-outs, Spain have not lost any of their last 11 EURO matches (W7 D4).
• Spain have only lost two of their last 12 EURO knockout round ties.
• Spain have only ever lost three EURO knockout round matches in regular time and two of those defeats were against France (EURO 1984 final and EURO 2000 quarter-final)
• Spain have won 12 and drawn one of their last 13 competitive matches.
• Spain have been losing at half-time in only one of their last 24 EURO matches.
• Spain have conceded a goal in the first half in only four of their last 24 EURO matches.
• Spain have scored in each of their last ten EURO matches. This is their longest sequence of successive EURO matches with a goal scored.
• Álvaro Morata is set to make his 16th EURO appearance. The only other Spanish players to reach the landmark are Jordi Alba (16), Cesc Fàbregas (16) and Andrés Iniesta (16).
• Dani Olmo and Rodri have both made nine EURO appearances. A total of 18 players have previously reached the landmark of ten EURO appearance for Spain.
• Lamine Yamal (16y 362d) is set to be the youngest player to make a EURO semi-final appearance, beating the record of Pedri who was 18 years and 223 days when he played for Spain against Italy in the semi-finals of EURO 2020.
• France have won three of their previous five EURO semi-final ties, including their last two (2000 and 2016). The last time they exited at this stage of the tournament was in 1996 on penalties against Czechia.
• Three of France’s previous five EURO semi-final ties required extra-time with only one eventually being settled by a penalty shoot-out (1996 L on pens vs Czechia).
• Excluding penalty shoot-outs, France have lost only one of their last 16 EURO matches (W8 D7).
• Excluding penalty shoot-outs, France have not lost any of their last nine EURO matches (W3 D6). This is their longest sequence without losing a match in EURO history.
• Six of France’s last eight EURO matches have finished level.
• Excluding penalty shoot-outs, France have not lost any of their last 17 competitive matches (W12 D5).
• France have kept four clean sheets in their five matches at EURO 2024.
• France have conceded only one goal in their last seven international matches.
• Against Portugal, Antoine Griezmann made his 16th EURO appearance for France, equalling the record held by Lilian Thuram.
• N'Golo Kanté has played the most games in EURO history without ever finishing on the losing side (W7 D6).
• A French player has yet to score a goal from open play for the team during EURO 2024 so far with their three goals coming from two own goals and one penalty.
• This will be a record 30th EURO match for Didier Deschamps as player and coach of France (13 player; 17 coach). Nobody has been involved in as many EURO matches as player and coach.
• Didier Deschamps is aiming to be only the third coach to reach two EURO finals after Germany’s Helmut Schön (1972 and 1976) and Berti Vogts (1992 and 1996).

SPAIN VS FRANCE PREDICTION

Spain have been brilliant at this tournament and have come a long way since Luis de la Fuente came under significant pressure following their 2-0 loss to Scotland in March 2023. However, the UEFA Nations League champions of last summer will head into this semi-final against a smart, efficient, albeit frustratingly dull French side with a 38-year-old at right-back, two centre-backs playing their club football in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Chelsea’s scapegoat at left-back and a goalkeeper who often makes high profile mistakes and would have been at the centre of another humiliation if Kai Havertz had converted from his wayward goal-kick in the last eight. France have not been good and yet they have conceded just one goal in this tournament – a penalty against Poland, and even that had to be retaken. Spain have a lot of talent that will likely dominate tournaments in the years to come but it makes sense to side with Europe’s inevitable force.

SPAIN VS FRANCE TIP: FRANCE TO WIN & UNDER 3.5 GOALS