Portugal vs Slovenia Preview & Prediction | UEFA EURO 2024 | Round of 16

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After Portugal’s largely second-string side was beaten in stunning fashion by Georgia last time out, the Group F winners will be back to full strength for their Round of 16 encounter with Slovenia.

KICK-OFF DATE/TIME: Monday 1st July, 2024 - UK – 8:00pm / US ET – 3:00pm / US PT – 12:00pm

HOW TO WATCH ON TV: UK – BBC / US – FOX

HOW TO WATCH ONLINE: UK – BBC iPlayer / US –VIX

PORTUGAL PREVIEW: LACK OF GOALS FOR RONALDO A CAUSE OF CONCERN

Despite having already secured top spot in Group F with two wins from two, Portugal boss Roberto Martinez chose to start Cristiano Ronaldo against Georgia, no doubt hoping the 39-year-old would open his account at the tournament. Unfortunately, the decision did not bear fruit with Ronaldo frustrated both by a heroic Georgian backline and the referee. An early goal on the counter-attack followed by a second-half penalty saw Georgia shock Portugal, winning by two goals to nil.

The loss is unlikely to be of much bother to Portugal, but it will understandably cause concern among their support. Of their three matches played so far, the only convincing performance was the 3-0 triumph over Türkiye and another misfire here could well see them dumped out.

SLOVENIA PREVIEW: SHOCK WIN OVER PORTUGAL SEES SLOVENIA MAKE HISTORY

Slovenia headed into the final round of Group C fixtures as arguably the biggest outsiders when it came to who would qualify for the knockout stage, with them on two points and up against England. However, a fantastic all-round showing full of solidity and discipline saw Matjaž Kek’s men earn a fully-deserved 0-0 draw, their third consecutive draw in the competition, which was enough to see them through as one of the best third-placed finishers.

It's important to note that Slovenia’s last game against Portugal came only back in late March of this year, a friendly in Ljubljana which the hosts won by two goals to nil, Portugal’s first loss in any fixture under the command of Roberto Martinez. That result coming just over three months ago will no doubt be fresh in the memory of the Slovenian players, fuelling their belief that an upset can be caused.

PORTUGAL TEAM NEWS: MARTINEZ TO BRING BACK BIG GUNS

It will be a different Portugal team to the one defeated by Georgia who take to the pitch from the start here. The likes of Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Ruben Dias, Joao Cancelo, Pepe, Nuno Mendes and Vitinha were all rested in Hamburg but should be back in the side. Rafael Leao returns from suspension, but faces a fight for a place in the XI.

PREDICTED XI (4-2-3-1): Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Pepe, Mendes; Vitinha, Palhinha; Bernardo Silva, Fernandes, Felix; Ronaldo

UNAVAILABLE:

QUESTIONABLE:

SLOVENIA TEAM NEWS: KEK FORCED INTO CHANGE AT LEFT-BACK

Defender Erik Janza’s suspension means that Slovenia will be forced into altering their starting line-up who drew against England, with Alanyaspor’s Jure Balkovec expected to take his place. Sandi Lovric was among the substitutes in that game, but failed to get on the pitch as question marks regarding his fitness remain.

PREDICTED XI (4-4-2): Oblak; Karnicik, Drkusic, Bijol, Balkovec; Stojanovic, Gnezda Cerin, Elsnik, Mlakar; Sporar, Sesko

UNAVAILABLE: Janza (Suspended)

QUESTIONABLE: Lovric (Fitness)

KEY STATS

• Both of Portugal’s previous EURO round of 16 ties finished 1-0: Won (aet) vs Croatia (EURO 2016) and Lost vs Belgium (EURO 2020).
• Despite defeat against Georgia, Portugal have still won 15 of their last 18 international matches (L3).
• Prior to their loss against Georgia, Portugal had won all their 12 competitive matches with Roberto Martínez as coach. That was their first competitive defeat since exiting the 2022 World Cup in the quarter-finals against Morocco.
• Portugal have never failed to score in two successive EURO matches.
• Portugal have been winning at half-time in only one of their last 13 EURO matches.
• Portugal have not been winning at half-time in a EURO knockout match since the 2004 semi-finals against the Netherlands (1-0 HT, 2-1 FT).
• Four of Portugal’s last six EURO knockout round matches have required extra-time.
• Cristiano Ronaldo is the only player with more than ten appearances in EURO knockout round matches – this could be his 12th appearance. The player in second place is Leonardo Bonucci (nine appearances).
• Slovenia have drawn their last four EURO matches.
• Slovenia are without a win in their previous six EURO matches (D5 L1).
• Slovenia are unbeaten in their last nine international matches (W4 D5).
• Slovenia have lost only two of their last 17 competitive matches (W8 D7).
• Slovenia have conceded more than one goal in only one of their last nine international matches.
• Five of Slovenia’s six EURO goals have been scored in the second half. The only time they have scored in the first half was in their debut match at EURO 2000 when Zlatko Zahovic put them 1-0 ahead against Yugoslavia in the 23rd minute.

PORTUGAL VS SLOVENIA PREDICTION

We should see a contest fairly similar to Portugal’s first group stage fixture against Czechia, certainly in terms of how the two teams set up. Portugal will dominate possession and force the majority of play, but the onus will be on them to break Slovenia down, who like Czechia will be exceedingly difficult to crack, as England will attest to.

Many of Portugal’s key men having had an extended rest should work in their favour, especially as this match goes on and the Slovenian team begin to tire having no doubt spent so much of the game out of possession, chasing down Portuguese players. As was the case in that Czechia fixture, back Portugal to eventually break through Slovenia and force victory here.

PORTUGAL VS SLOVENIA TIP: PORTUGAL TO WIN