The Stats Zone
July 4 2024, 10:45 · Alex Lawes

Portugal vs France Preview & Prediction | UEFA EURO 2024 | Quarter-Final

Portugal vs France Preview & Prediction | UEFA EURO 2024 | Quarter-Final
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Ahead of the tournament, these were two of the three major favourites, along with England, for UEFA EURO 2024 but, such has been the nuances of the draw so far, only one of these sides will make it into the final four.

KICK-OFF DATE/TIME: Friday 5th July, 2024 - UK – 8:00pm / US ET – 3:00pm / US PT – 12:00pm

HOW TO WATCH ON TV: UK – BBC / US – FOX

HOW TO WATCH ONLINE: UK – BBC iPlayer / US – ViX

PORTUGAL PREVIEW: THE ONE-MAN SHOW

Roberto Martinez’ Portugal qualified in emphatic and impressive style last year but pretty much every performance in 2024 has been a difficult one. From losing to Slovenia in a friendly in March, they then needed penalties to defeat the stubborn Slovenians in the Round of 16 earlier this week after 120 minutes of a goalless encounter.

They have now not scored since the second game as they also lost to Georgia by two goals to nil in the meantime and when you factor in the fact that two of the five goals they scored prior to that point were own goals and they needed to come from behind and score in stoppage-time to win their opener, it has been an extremely underwhelming run.

FRANCE PREVIEW: THE NO MAN SHOW

Similarly, France, who are the supposed serial international football winners, albeit they have won just one major international trophy since 2000, have squeezed themselves through to the last eight of this competition in extremely unconvincing fashion with Les Bleus yet to score a goal from open play via their own player.

Their defeat of Austria came courtesy of an own goal from Max Wober before a goalless draw with the Netherlands and then a 1-1 draw with Poland in which Kylian Mbappe scored a penalty. It was then a late Jan Vertonghen own goal that separated themselves and Belgium in their Round of 16 tie the other day.

PORTUGAL TEAM NEWS: THE CRISTIANO RONALDO DEBATE

Cristiano Ronaldo dominated proceedings against Slovenia, and memorably so, but not in the most positive sense. The Al Nassr forward is a fading force and perhaps hurts Portugal but the expectation is that only Joao Felix for Rafael Leao will be Portugal’s personnel change. Goncalo Ramos replaced the underperforming Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2022 FIFA World Cup and Portugal duly defeated Switzerland by six goals to one but that seems very unlikely this time around.

PREDICTED XI (4-2-3-1): Costa; Cancelo, Pepe, Dias, Mendes; Joao Palhinha, Vitinha; Silva, Fernandes, Joao Felix; Cristiano Ronaldo

UNAVAILABLE:

QUESTIONABLE:

FRANCE TEAM NEWS: RABIOT MISSING

The suspension of Adrien Rabiot could mean two things. The first would be a straight swap and Real Madrid midfielder Eduardo Camavinga comes in. The second could see Antoine Griezmann drop back into midfield and the out of form Ousmane Dembele return to the side. Dembele has been really underwhelming, though, and with Didier Deschamps' natural lean towards conservative football, an extra central midfielder is the more likely choice.

PREDICTED XI (4-3-3): Maignan; Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernandez; Kante, Tchouameni, Camavinga; Griezmann, Thuram, Mbappe

UNAVAILABLE: Rabiot (Suspended)

QUESTIONABLE:

KEY STATS

  • France have won 11 of the last 14 meetings between these two teams (D2 L1). With Portugal’s only victory in that period being their 1-0 win in extra-time in the EURO 2016 final.
  • Overall, they have met four times at EURO final tournaments. France won the first two, in the semi-finals at EURO 1984 and EURO 2000 (both 2-1 aet), Portugal came out on top in the 2016 final (1-0 aet) and the pair drew their most recent encounter in the group stage at EURO 2020 (D 2-2).
  • Portugal have now reached the quarter-finals in seven of the last eight EURO final tournaments. They have been successful in four of their previous six EURO quarter-final ties, their last exit at this stage of a EURO tournament was in 2008 against Germany (L 3-2).
  • Portugal have lost only one of their 14 competitive matches with Roberto Martínez as coach (W12 D1 L1).
  • Portugal have played two successive EURO matches without scoring a goal for the first time.
  • Portugal have been winning at half-time in only one of their last 14 EURO matches.
  • Portugal have not been winning at half-time in a EURO knockout match since the 2004 semi-finals against the Netherlands (1-0 HT, 2-1 FT).
  • Five of Portugal’s last seven EURO knockout round matches have required extra-time.
  • Portugal have been successful in their last four EURO knockout ties that went into extra-time.
  • Portugal have kept six clean sheets in their last eight EURO knockout matches.
  • Cristiano Ronaldo is set to become the first player to reach the landmark of 30 EURO appearances by featuring in this match.
  • France have won three and lost two of their previous five EURO quarter-final ties. Only one of the five ties went into extra-time (1996 vs Netherlands W 5-4 on pens). The last four have all been settled in normal time (W2 L2).
  • Excluding penalty shoot-outs, France have lost only one of their last 15 EURO matches (W8 D6).
  • Excluding penalty shoot-outs, France have not lost any of their last eight EURO matches (W3 D5). This is their longest sequence without losing a match in EURO history.
  • Excluding penalty shoot-outs, France have not lost any of their last 16 competitive matches (W12 D4).
  • France have kept three clean sheets in their four matches at EURO 2024.
  • France have conceded only one goal in their last six international matches.
  • France have won four of their last six EURO knockout round matches in normal time.
  • Against Belgium, Antoine Griezmann made his 15th EURO appearance for France, moving him level with Hugo Lloris. Behind only Lilian Thuram (16).
  • N'Golo Kanté has played the most games in EURO history without ever finishing on the losing side (W7 D5).

PORTUGAL VS FRANCE PREDICTION

There is a fear that this game will be quite tedious to watch for the neutral, especially given their respective Round of 16 ties on Monday. Roberto Martinez is under pressure to go deep into this tournament with a marvellous Portuguese squad, whilst France are yet to get going and that has been a theme of tournaments in which they have done well under Didier Deschamps but there is certainly more of a disconnect and lack of control than they would like. A result is tough to call but under 2.5 goals seems very likely at this stage.

PORTUGAL VS FRANCE TIP: UNDER 2.5 GOALS