The Stats Zone
June 12 2024, 16:13 · Alex Lawes

Poland vs Netherlands Preview & Prediction | UEFA EURO 2024 | Group Stage

Poland vs Netherlands Preview & Prediction | UEFA EURO 2024 | Group Stage
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A Robert Lewandowski-less Poland, who needed the playoffs to qualify, take on the 1988 UEFA European Championship winners Netherlands in their opening encounter on Sunday.

KICK-OFF DATE/TIME: Sunday 16th June, 2024 - UK – 2:00pm / US EST – 9:00am / US PST – 7:00am

HOW TO WATCH ON TV: UK – BBC / US – FOX

HOW TO WATCH ONLINE: UK – BBC iPlayer / US – VIX

POLAND PREVIEW: A WEAK POLAND SIDE

It was a miserable qualifying campaign from Poland. Under the management of UEFA EURO 2016 winning coach Fernando Santos, Poland trudged their way to third in their group, below both Albania and Czech Republic – just above Moldova, who defeated them in Chisinau. Santos was replaced ahead of the playoffs by Michal Probierz.

They did perhaps stumble onto something a little more fitting of the personnel they have; moving away from a rigid 4-4-2 they have seemingly played for decades now and towards a back three with wing-backs. That saw them hammer Estonia in the playoff semi-finals in March before then edging past a fairly weak Wales side on penalties in Cardiff in the final.

NETHERLANDS PREVIEW: THE GREAT DUTCH DEFENCE

In what many could see as a ‘group of death’ alongside France, a rejuvenated Austria as well as Poland, the Netherlands come into this tournament with few expectations but mainly hope of going quite deep into a competition that they haven’t won a knockout stage match in in 20 years since reaching the semi-finals of UEFA EURO 2004.

Back under the management of Ronald Koeman, Oranje boast an incredible collection of defenders, particularly centrally. Virgil van Dijk, Stefan de Vrij, Nathan Ake, Micky van de Ven, Daley Blind and Matthijs de Ligt is a list that arguably gives Koeman a bit of a headache. They dispatched of Iceland 4-0 in their final friendly, just days after the Icelanders defeated England at Wembley.

POLAND TEAM NEWS: WITHOUT THEIR TALISMAN

It has been confirmed by Poland that their captain and key striker Robert Lewandowski will miss their opening game against the Netherlands after suffering a torn biceps femoris muscle. The other issue within their squad has been Matty Cash but Przemyslaw Frankowski of Lens will have likely started ahead of him at right wing-back anyway.

PREDICTED XI (3-5-1-1): Szczesny; Bednarek, Dawidowicz, Kiwior; Frankowski, Slisz, Piotrowski, Moder, Zalewski; Zielinski; Swiderski

UNAVAILABLE: Lewandowski (Injured)

QUESTIONABLE:

NETHERLANDS TEAM NEWS: PICKING THE RIGHT DEFENCE

Both Teun Koopmeiners and Frenkie de Jong had to withdraw from the squad ahead of the tournament with Joshua Zirkzee, the Bologna forward, a surprise late addition. Koeman has preferred a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 as Oranje move away from the back three, despite the amount of solid defensive options they have.

PREDICTED XI (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen; Dumfries, De Ligt, Van Dijk, Ake; Schouten, Veerman; Simons, Reijnders, Gakpo; Depay

UNAVAILABLE:

QUESTIONABLE:

KEY STATS

  • This is Poland’s fifth successive EURO appearance since their debut at EURO 2008.
  • Excluding penalty shoot-outs, Poland have won only two of their previous 14 EURO matches (D7 L5). Their most recent victory was a 1-0 win against Ukraine in their last group match at EURO 2016.
  • Only one of Poland’s previous 14 EURO matches finished without a goal being scored. That was a 0-0 draw against Germany in the group stage at EURO 2016.
  • Poland have scored more than one goal in only one of their previous 14 EURO matches.
  • A 2-0 home victory in a EURO qualifying match all the way back in May 1979 is Poland’s last win against the Netherlands.
  • The Netherlands are making their 11th EURO appearance. They have only missed out in 1984 and 2016 since their debut in 1976.
  • The Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 12 matches against Poland (W7 D5).
  • The Netherlands won all their three group matches at EURO 2020.
  • The Netherlands have not drawn any of their last 11 EURO group stage matches. The last time one of their group matches finished level was their EURO 2004 opening fixture against Germany (1-1).
  • The Netherlands have lost their opening match in only one of their last seven EURO appearances (W4 D2).
  • The Netherlands have only failed to score in one of their last 17 EURO group stage matches.
  • The Netherlands have scored 47 goals in EURO group stage matches.

POLAND VS NETHERLANDS PREDICTION

Poland stumbled to Germany this summer and now begin their campaign without their one point of difference. Lewandowski has often struggled at tournaments so there will be a hope that, paradoxically, his absence is something of a blessing but all it does is increase the likelihood of the Dutch starting with a dominant display. No matter who they start at the back, so long as they gel as a unit quite quickly, Poland will have real difficulty scoring in this one and Ronald Koeman’s side should ease to victory.

POLAND VS NETHERLANDS TIP: NETHERLANDS TO WIN TO NIL