The Stats Zone
June 27 2024, 09:57 · Alex Sarwar

Germany vs Denmark Preview & Prediction | UEFA EURO 2024 | Round of 16

Germany vs Denmark Preview & Prediction | UEFA EURO 2024 | Round of 16
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Host nation Germany will be backed again by huge home support in Dortmund, as the Group A winners face Denmark with the winners advancing through to the quarter-finals.

KICK-OFF DATE/TIME: Saturday 29th June, 2024 - UK – 8:00pm / US ET – 3:00pm / US PT – 12:00pm

HOW TO WATCH ON TV: UK – ITV / US – FOX

HOW TO WATCH ONLINE: UK – ITVX / US –VIX

GERMANY PREVIEW: LATE GOAL SECURES UNBEATEN GROUP STAGE CAMPAIGN

After two resounding victories in their first two group games, most expected Germany to complete a 100% record on their way to the Round of 16. But Switzerland had other ideas and took the lead against Julian Nagelsmann’s side in Frankfurt. However, the hosts never gave up and a late equaliser from super-sub Niclas Fullkrug was enough to get them the point they needed to finish top of Group A.

Germany will need to be much better offensively here, or they could be on the receiving end of a big upset, with EURO 2020 semi-finalists Denmark not to be taken for granted. However, they racked up seven goals across those victories over Scotland and Hungary, so we know they are more than capable of stepping up a gear.

DENMARK PREVIEW: LAST-GASP EQUALISER SAW ITALIANS THROUGH AS RUNNERS-UP

Denmark will be relieved to have made it through Group C in second-place despite not winning a single one of their three games. Draws against Slovenia and England respectively left them needing something vs Serbia to guarantee their passage into the knockout stage and whilst it was a tense affair, a goalless draw was enough for the Danes.

Defensively, Denmark have impressed across the competition so far, conceding just two goals, but finding the net themselves has been an issue. Obviously, the creativity of Christian Eriksen remains pivotal from their point of view, as does the attacking nature of their full-backs, especially when on the break.

GERMANY TEAM NEWS: NAGELSMANN FORCED INTO DEFENSIVE CHANGE

Germany are expected to line up with Nico Schlotterbeck partnering Antonio Rudiger at centre-back due to Jonathan Tah’s suspension. David Raum could replace Maximilian Mittelstadt at left-back and Fullkrug is making a huge case to be included ahead of Kai Havertz up top. Aside from this, Nagelsmann is unlikely to revert from the formula that got his side through the group stage.

PREDICTED XI (4-2-3-1): Neuer; Kimmich, Rudiger, Schlotterbeck, Mittelstadt; Andrich, Kroos; Musiala, Gundogan, Wirtz; Fullkrug

UNAVAILABLE: Tah (Suspended)

QUESTIONABLE:

DENMARK TEAM NEWS: HJULMAND MISSES OUT THROUGH SUSPENSION

Scorer of Denmark’s goal against England, midfielder Morten Hjulmand will play no part in this game, as he is suspended. Still without a goal in this his first major international tournament, Rasmus Hojlund could be taken out of the firing line, with Kasper Dolberg a candidate to replace him.

PREDICTED XI (3-4-1-2): Schmeichel; Andersen, Christensen, Vestergaard; Bah, Delaney, Hojbjerg, Maehle; Eriksen; Wind, Dolberg

UNAVAILABLE: M. Hjulmand (Suspended)

QUESTIONABLE:

KEY STATS

  • Germany and Denmark have met four times previously in major final tournaments with each team winning twice. Germany came out on top in the group stage at EURO 1988 and EURO 2012, winning 2-0 and 2-1 respectively. Denmark won 2-0 in a group match at the 1986 World Cup and famously by the same score in the final of EURO 1992.
  • Although Germany have 15 wins to Denmark’s eight in the overall head-to-head record, the last nine meetings have seen three wins for both teams and three draws and Denmark have lost only one of their last six encounters (W2 D3).
  • Germany have won one and lost one of their previous two EURO round of 16 ties. They defeated Slovakia 3-0 at this stage of the tournament in 2016 and lost 2-0 against England at EURO 2020.
  • Germany's total of eight goals scored in the group stage at EURO 2024 is their highest tally in a EURO group, beating their previous best of six (EURO 2020). The most they have ever scored in a EURO final tournament is ten (1996, 2008, 2012).
  • Only one of Germany’s last 25 EURO matches have finished without a goal being scored.
  • Germany have won five and drawn two of their seven international matches in the current calendar year.
  • Only one of Germany’s last nine EURO matches has gone into extra-time.
  • Manuel Neuer has equalled Bastian Schweinsteiger’s German record of 18 EURO appearances and is set to claim the record outright. Toni Kroos is in third place having moved onto 17 EURO appearances against Switzerland.
  • Julian Nagelsmann (36y 342d) will be the youngest coach in a EURO knockout match beating the record of Frank Rijkaard (37y 269d) with the Netherlands in the quarter-finals of EURO 2000.
  • Denmark have now qualified for the knockout rounds in five of their nine EURO group stage appearances. They have qualified from their group in successive editions for the first time.
  • Denmark defeated Wales 4-0 at EURO 2020 in their only previous EURO round of 16 tie.
  • Denmark have lost only one of their last seven EURO matches (W3 D3).
  • Denmark have lost only one of their last 15 international matches (W9 D5).
  • Denmark had only drawn four of their 24 EURO group matches prior to this tournament. They drew all three matches in the group stage at EURO 2024.
  • Denmark have been losing at half-time in only two of their last 28 EURO matches.
  • Denmark have only failed to score in one of their last eight EURO knockout stage matches.
  • There has been a total of 28 goals scored in Denmark’s previous nine EURO knockout round matches (an average of 3.11 goals per match).
  • Against Serbia, Christian Eriksen became Denmark's all-time record appearance maker with 133 international caps surpassing Simon Kjaer who has 132.

GERMANY VS DENMARK PREDICTION

Expect Denmark to prove as difficult to break down as Switzerland was for Germany, who will need to be at their best here, replicating the sort of performances shown against Scotland and Hungary. If they do that, then the Danish backline will likely be overwhelmed over the course of 90 minutes in what should be a scorching hot atmosphere in Dortmund.

Both teams boast significant experience within their respective sides, but Germany contain that extra individual quality, particularly from an attacking perspective, which is likely to prove critical. Therefore, the host nation are well worth backing to advance through to the quarter-finals in 90 minutes.

GERMANY VS DENMARK TIP: GERMANY TO WIN