The Stats Zone
June 21 2024, 15:51 · Alex Lawes

Croatia vs Italy Preview & Prediction | UEFA EURO 2024 | Group Stage

Croatia vs Italy Preview & Prediction | UEFA EURO 2024 | Group Stage
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With four points likely to be enough to send a team through as one of the four best third placed teams, this is a huge game for both sides and could result in the defending champions being eliminated from the tournament.

KICK-OFF DATE/TIME: Monday 24th June, 2024 - UK – 8:00pm / US EST – 3:00pm / US PST – 1:00pm

HOW TO WATCH ON TV: UK – BBC / US – FOX

HOW TO WATCH ONLINE: UK – BBC iPlayer / US – VIX

CROATIA PREVIEW: REGRESSING AS A SIDE

It does appear that Croatia may be on the verge of the end of their ‘golden generation’ which has seen them finish second and third at the last two FIFA World Cups. The Croats have a very experienced side but the amount of technicians and potentially slower build-up play has meant they have been quite lethargic at times.

The Croatians began their UEFA EURO 2024 campaign with a 3-0 hammering at the hands of Spain, albeit they created a lot of clear-cut chances in that match including a missed penalty. Then they needed to come from behind to lead Albania by two goals to one but were, in the end, thankful to leave that game with a point.

ITALY PREVIEW: AZZURRI WILL BE FEARFUL

Reigning champions Italy, under the management of former Napoli boss Luciano Spalletti, began their tournament by conceding after 23 seconds to Albania. They came from behind quickly and eventually held on to win that game by two goals to one but concerns were there from the off and they were even more pronounced against the Spanish.

Spain defeated the Italians by a goal to nil in Gelsenkirchen on Thursday but a 1-0 scoreline was extremely flattering to the Azzurri, who were dominated throughout the game and should have conceded a lot more. They are in danger of elimination in the group stages with 2021 seemingly a complete outlier to recent Italian international football.

CROATIA TEAM NEWS: ATTACKING SPARK

Zlatko Dalic has a few choices to make for this one. Ivan Perisic came in at left-back in their second match and will likely keep his spot in the team with Italy’s defensive difficulties down the right-hand side. Croatia were much-improved when Ante Budimir came on so the Osasuna striker is expected to return to their starting line-up.

PREDICTED XI (4-3-3): Livakovic; Juranovic, Sutalo, Gvardiol, Perisic; Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic; Majer, Budimir, Kramaric

UNAVAILABLE:

QUESTIONABLE:

ITALY TEAM NEWS: POTENTIAL DEFENSIVE CHANGE

Both Nicolo Barella and Nicolo Fagioli have been doubts throughout the group stages but Barella has started both matches with Fagioli on the bench in both. There could well be a change in defence, though, with Inter’s Matteo Darmian potentially coming in for Napoli captain Giovanni Di Lorenzo, who was given the run around by Nico Williams.

PREDICTED XI (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Darmian, Bastoni, Calafiori, Dimarco; Frattesi, Jorginho, Barella; Chiesa, Scamacca, Pellegrini

UNAVAILABLE:

QUESTIONABLE: Barella (Injured), Fagioli (Injured)

KEY STATS

  • Croatia have lost only one of the previous nine matches between these two teams (W3 D5). With the Italian’s only victory being a 4-0 win in a friendly in 1942 – their first ever encounter.
  • Croatia and Italy’s last three meetings all finished 1-1, including in the group stage at EURO 2012 – the only time they have previously met at a major final tournament.
  • Croatia have qualified for the knockout rounds in four of their previous six EURO appearances, including each of the last two (EURO 2016 and EURO 2020). The last time they missed out was at EURO 2012.
  • Croatia have never finished bottom of a EURO final tournament group.
  • The only time Croatia completed a EURO final tournament group without a win was at the finals in 2004 when a 4-2 defeat against England on Matchday 3 followed draws against Switzerland and France.
  • Croatia have won their final group match in three of the last four EURO final tournaments.
  • Croatia have lost only one of their last eight international matches (W5 D2).
  • Luka Modrić is set to make his 13th appearance in a EURO group stage match. Only Cristiano Ronaldo (15) and Pepe (13) have previously reached this landmark. Ronaldo and Pepe could be on 16 and 14 respectively after Portugal’s Matchday 2 fixture.
  • Andrej Kramarić and Marcelo Brozović could both make their 10th EURO appearance for Croatia.
  • Zlatko Dalić has coached Croatia in seven EURO final tournament matches, he will equal the record of Slaven Bilić in this match with his eighth appearance as coach.
  • Prior to 2024, Italy have qualified for the knockout rounds in each of the last four EURO final tournaments. The last time they failed to make it out of the group stage was in 2004, when they finished third behind Sweden and Denmark despite finishing unbeaten with five points.
  • Italy have not lost two successive major final tournament matches since the 2014 World Cup when they suffered back-to-back defeats against Costa Rica and Uruguay.
  • Italy have never lost two successive EURO final tournament matches.
  • Italy have finished outside of the top two in only two of their previous nine EURO final tournament group stage appearances.
  • The last time Italy conceded more than one goal in a EURO group match was in a 3-0 defeat against the Netherlands in the 2008 tournament.
  • Italy have not been losing at half-time in their last 13 EURO group matches. The last time they trailed at half-time in a group match was in 2008 against the Netherlands.
  • Italy have conceded only one first half goal in their last 13 EURO group matches.
  • Federico Chiesa is set to make his 50th international appearance for Italy.
  • Federico Chiesa, Jorginho and Gianluigi Donnarumma are all set to make their 10th EURO appearance for Italy. Donnarumma could be the youngest Italian player to reach the landmark aged 25 years and 120 days, Chiesa could become the second youngest at the age of 26 years and 243 days. The current youngest is Leonardo Bonucci who reached the milestone at EURO 2016 at the age of 29 years and 57 days.

CROATIA VS ITALY PREDICTION

With Albania playing against a potentially rotated Spanish side that have already won Group B and have little to play for, the Italians will be out if Albania beat Spain and they themselves lose to Croatia. Croatia are only on one point in their opening two matches so will need to win, too, if they are to get through this and we have the potential for a real end-to-end thriller in the final 20 or so minutes of this match with both teams scoring a good bet.

CROATIA VS ITALY TIP: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE