The Stats Zone
March 10 2025, 15:12 · Rob Esteva

Denis Shapovalov vs Carlos Alcaraz Preview & Prediction | 2025 Indian Wells Open (BNP Paribas Open) | Third Round

Denis Shapovalov vs Carlos Alcaraz Preview & Prediction | 2025 Indian Wells Open (BNP Paribas Open) | Third Round

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Second seed Carlos Alcaraz returns to action on Monday and faces a tricky opponent in Denis Shapovalov for a place in the round of 16

Ranking points: ATP 1000

Start date/time: Tuesday 11th March, 2025: UK – not before 1:00am / Monday 10th March, US ET – not before 8:00pm / US PT – not before 5:00pm

Venue:  Indian Wells Tennis Garden, Indian Wells, USA

Surface: Outdoor hard

How to watch on TV: UK – Sky Sports Tennis / US – Tennis Channel

How to watch online: UK – Sky Go / US – Tennis Channel

Tickets: Visit this link for the latest Denis Shapovalov vs Carlos Alcaraz ticket information

Denis Shapovalov vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Denis Shapovalov is the 27th-seed this week at Indian Wells and he comes off a 6-3 6-2 win over Adam Walton. His form this year has been really good and the Canadian is playing with really good confidence right now.

He now meets Carlos Alcaraz in the third round for what promises to be a fascinating encounter. They have met once before at Roland Garros in 2023 and Alcaraz won that in straight sets.

Alcaraz beat Quentin Halys 6-4 6-2 in his opening match and while he confessed to some nerves, he was far too good for the Frenchman. He is the highest seed left after Alexander Zverev was eliminated and there is a degree of pressure on him right now. He has had some below-par performances of late including being knocked out in Qatar by Jiri Lehecka and it will be interesting to see how he gets on this week.

Shapovalov is an awkward customer at the best of times and he will pose Alcaraz some troubles here. we still expect Alcaraz to win but we are not loving the Spaniard right now as there is a vulnerability about him. 

Our play here is on game betting and we expect a back and forth battle. Alcaraz may surprise us and step up a level but he is not playing well enough to dominate somebody like Shapovalov right now.

Denis Shapovalov vs Carlos Alcaraz Tip: Over 21.5 total games