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SEAN STRICKLAND VS PAULO COSTA FACTS
When is UFC 302? Sunday 1st June, 2024 - 01:00 (UK)
Where is UFC 302? Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 302? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 302
What channel is UFC 302 on? TNT Sports 1
Where can I stream UFC 302? TNT Sports subscribers can stream the fight online via the TNT Sports website and Discovery+
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
SEAN STRICKLAND VS PAULO COSTA LOWDOWN
Sean Strickland (28-6) makes his first appearance as the former middleweight champion. His upset unanimous decision win over Israel Adesanya (2023) at UFC 293 could not have been more worthy of a ‘Performance of the Night’. He then flew to Canada to defend his belt against Dricus du Plessis (2024) at UFC 297 and narrowly fell short in a split decision.
Paulo Costa (14-3) is also coming off a hard-fought decision loss. He met Robert Whittaker (2024) at UFC 298 and almost knocked the Aussie out but ended up losing a unanimous decision. That made it 1-3 in his last four with losses to Adesanya (2020) and Marvin Vettori (2021) before his exciting three-round war and win over with Luke Rockhold (2022).
SEAN STRICKLAND VS PAULO COSTA PREDICTION
New Jersey are treated to a mouthwatering co-main event. Both fighters can grapple, but this should be a stand-up war. Interestingly, this is a five-round fight which should favour Strickland.
He can keep up a suffocating pace or 25 minutes whereas Costa is more explosive and although his cardio is good, he is more likely to fade under Strickland’s pressure in the championship rounds.
We can see Costa winning the early rounds landing more damage. Strickland’s body will be an easy target for the Brazilian’s thunderous kicks. We can also see his right head kick landing and would not be surprised to see him rock Strickland early.
However, his aggression may work against him. He will try and walk Strickland down which will be like walking into a woodchipper. Strickland’s basic jab and 1-2 will constantly be there to greet Costa’s face which will frustrate him causing him to throw more wildly.
Over three rounds, we would back Costa’s explosiveness to sway the judges at least, but over five rounds he needs to put Strickland away. Strickland’s defence is exceptional which will carry him into the championship rounds where his cardio will allow him to land more volume and damage to earn a decision.
We expect this to be very competitive and Costa has every chance of winning a tight decision by chopping the legs and piercing the body, but Strickland’s defence and output swing this in his favour.
Prediction: Strickland via Decision
Value Bet: Costa via Decision