Netherlands vs France Preview & Prediction | UEFA EURO 2024 | Group Stage

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This is a genuinely big game to decide who will win the group and may head into what looks like a potentially ‘easier’ side of the draw as the Netherlands take on one of the pre-tournament favourites France in a heavyweight clash on Friday.

KICK-OFF DATE/TIME: Friday 21st June, 2024 - UK – 8:00pm / US EST – 3:00pm / US PST – 1:00pm

HOW TO WATCH ON TV: UK – BBC / US – FOX

HOW TO WATCH ONLINE: UK – BBC iPlayer / US – VIX

NETHERLANDS PREVIEW: SURPRISING CRUYFFIAN PRINCIPLES

Ronald Koeman is not necessarily a coach that plays in the ‘Dutch tradition’ with an emphasis on pressing and a slick passing style of football but that was not the case in their opener against Poland. After going behind early on to an Adam Buksa header from a set-piece, Oranje really did get into their stride and propelled themselves forward.

Slick interchanges involving the likes of Xavi Simons, Tijjani Reijnders, Memphis Depay and Cody Gakpo, with support from Denzel Dumfries, saw them create plenty of chances but they did still require a massive deflection to equalise and then a bit of simplicity from Wout Weghorst to take all three points from Hamburg.

FRANCE PREVIEW: GRINDING IT OUT

France do not tend to start tournaments overly well. They needed to come from behind in 2022 against Australia, were held by Hungary in 2021 and needed late winners against Australia and Romania in 2018 and 2016 respectively. Another performance where the phrase ‘they got the job done’ was fitting was put in on Monday.

They defeated the so-called ‘dark horses’ of the tournament, Austria, by a goal to nil with that coming from the head of Austrian defender Max Wober after some good play and a good cross by Kylian Mbappe. France were generally in control, though, despite the odd scare and will look to grow into the tournament.

NETHERLANDS TEAM NEWS: SAME AGAIN FROM THE DUTCH

The Netherlands have no fresh injury concerns or suspension issues with only Ajax forward Brian Brobbey remaining a doubt for this one. Ronald Koeman is expected to name the same eleven that played against Poland with Tijjani Reijnders a key aspect in turning it into a 4-3-3 without the ball and a 4-2-3-1 when they attack.

PREDICTED XI (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen; Dumfries, De Vrij, Van Dijk, Ake; Schouten, Veerman; Simons, Reijnders, Gakpo; Depay

UNAVAILABLE:

QUESTIONABLE: Brobbey (Injured)

FRANCE TEAM NEWS: DEALING WITHOUT MBAPPE

Kylian Mbappe, Les Bleus’ captain, suffered a broken nose late on in that opener against Austria and he will be a big miss for Didier Deschamps, especially after, as predicted, being their biggest spark in the final third. It is a toss up between Paris Saint-Germain forward Randal Kolo Muani and the experienced LAFC-bound Olivier Giroud as to who will replace him.

PREDICTED XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernandez; Kante, Rabiot; Dembele, Griezmann, Thuram; Giroud

UNAVAILABLE: Mbappe (Injured)

QUESTIONABLE: Tchouameni (Injured)

KEY STATS

• France have won seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams (L1). Including both encounters in their EURO 2024 qualifying group (4-0 home, 2-1 away).
• This is the fourth EURO meeting between the two sides. France progressed on penalties from their quarter-final tie in 1996 after a 0-0 draw. The Netherlands won 3-2 in the group stage four years later and then recorded a 4-1 victory in the EURO 2008 group stage,
• The Netherlands have won their last four EURO group stage matches.
• The Netherlands are aiming to start a EURO group with two successive wins for the fourth time having achieved the feat at EURO 2000, EURO 2008 and EURO 2020.
• The Netherlands have failed to score in only one of their last 18 EURO group stage matches.
• The Netherlands have not drawn 0-0 in a EURO group match since EURO 1996 against Scotland.
• The Netherlands have won seven of their last eight international matches (L1).
• The Netherlands have won their last five EURO matches in Germany (4x 1988, 1x 2024).
• The Netherlands have scored 49 goals in EURO group stage matches.
• Wout Weghorst has scored four goals in five international appearances in the current calendar year
• Cody Gakpo has scored in four successive major tournament group matches for the Netherlands (3x WC 2022, 1x EURO 2024).
• Excluding penalty shoot-outs, France have lost only one of their last 12 EURO matches (W7 D4).
• France are unbeaten in their last seven EURO group stage matches (W4 D3).
• Only two of France’s last 29 EURO matches have finished without a goal being scored.
• Excluding penalty shoot-outs, France have not lost any of their last 13 competitive matches (W11 D2).
• Excluding penalty shoot-outs, France have lost only two of their last 19 international matches (W14 D3).
• France have been losing at half-time in only one of their last ten EURO group stage matches.
• France have lost their second match only once in their previous nine EURO group stage appearances (W4 D4). The only defeat was against the Netherlands in their second match at EURO 2008 (L 4-1).
• France have lost only five of their previous 28 EURO group stage matches and two of those defeats were against the Netherlands (L 3-2 EURO 2000 and L 4-1 EURO 2008).
• Olivier Giroud and Antoine Griezmann have both made 12 EURO appearances for France, if they feature in this match, they will move level with Laurent Blanc and Didier Deschamps. Behind only Lilian Thuram (16), Hugo Lloris (15) and Zinédine Zidane (14).
• Kylian Mbappé scored twice in both of France’s matches against the Netherlands in EURO 2024 qualifying.

NETHERLANDS VS FRANCE PREDICTION

This is an important game in determining the group winner because if the Netherlands topple France then there is a very good chance, thanks to the head-to-head rule, that they will win Group D and have a softer run through the knockout stages. France are having to deal without Kylian Mbappe so will likely be even more reactive and pragmatic than they usually are and the likelihood is that this is not necessarily overly thrilling for the neutral with a bit of a low-scoring encounter, rare for this tournament, a good chance.

NETHERLANDS VS FRANCE TIP: UNDER 2.5 GOALS