Italy vs Albania Preview & Prediction | UEFA EURO 2024 | Group Stage

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Four-time world champions Italy begin the defence of their UEFA European Championship title in Dortmund on Saturday as they face one of the major underdogs in the tournament, Albania.

KICK-OFF DATE/TIME: Saturday 15th June, 2024 - UK – 8:00pm / US EST – 3:00pm / US PST – 1:00pm

HOW TO WATCH ON TV: UK – BBC / US – FOX

HOW TO WATCH ONLINE: UK – BBC iPlayer / US – VIX

ITALY PREVIEW: THE DEFENDING CHAMPIONS

The defending European champions head into this tournament, once again, in the clutch of teams outside of the leading contenders but with a few hopes that an attacking manager can instil a feel good factor with the Azzurri. 2022/23 Serie A winning coach Luciano Spalletti replaced Roberto Mancini last autumn and still new into the job but is immediately under pressure.

The former Napoli boss appears in two minds about his selection for this opening game, both in terms of personnel and system, using a back three and then a 4-3-3 in the two warm-up friendlies. There is a concern about goal scoring but using the ‘Inter core’ that he has, including Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolo Barella, will always make them one of the stronger sides.

ALBANIA PREVIEW: SURPRISE PACKAGE OF QUALIFYING

It was a very impressive qualifying campaign that saw Albania reach their second UEFA European Championships in just eight years after first qualifying in 2016. This is a very different generation of players but with former Manchester City defender Sylvinho in charge, and his former teammate Pablo Zabaleta as assistant, it is arguably a much stronger unit.

There is pedigree throughout the side with the likes of Etrit Berisha, Berat Djimsiti, Elseid Hysaj, Kristjan Asllani and Armando Broja but they will have to be at their absolute best in the so-called ‘group of death’. They head into the tournament on the back of comfortable warm-up victories against Liechtenstein and then Azerbaijan.

ITALY TEAM NEWS: LEANING TO A BACK THREE

The Italians played both a back four and a back three in their warm-ups with the back three working a bit better. There is therefore an expectation that the Azzurri will stick with that with the biggest dilemma for Spalletti being between Alessandro Buongiorno and Riccardo Calafiori, with extra protection suiting the Bologna defender and his bursts up the pitch, in that back three. Davide Frattesi and Lorenzo Pellegrini will also be battling it out for a spot alongside Chiesa but the former has been nursing an injury alongside both Nicolo Fagioli and Nicolo Barella.

PREDICTED XI (3-4-2-1): Donnarumma; Darmian, Bastoni, Calafiori; Di Lorenzo, Jorginho, Cristante, Dimarco; Chiesa, Pellegrini; Scamacca

UNAVAILABLE:

QUESTIONABLE: Barella (Injured), Fagioli (Injured)

ALBANIA TEAM NEWS: SETTING UP TO BE SOLID

Sylvinho has so far resisted the temptation to name a back three and stack the Albanian defensive line so a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 or 4-2-1-3 variation is to be expected. Jasir Asani has had an excellent build-up to the competition with the former Macedonian U21 international, now playing at Gwangju in South Korea, a potential surprise package for the tournament itself.

PREDICTED XI (4-2-3-1): Berisha; Balliu, Djimsiti, Ajeti, Hysaj; Asllani, Ramadani; Asani, Bajrami, Seferi; Broja

UNAVAILABLE:

QUESTIONABLE:

KEY STATS

• This is Italy’s 11th EURO appearance and eighth in succession.
• Italy have lost only three of their previous 27 EURO group stage matches (W15 D9).
• Italy have won six of their last seven EURO group stage matches without conceding a goal.
• The last time Italy conceded more than one goal in a EURO group match was in a 3-0 defeat against the Netherlands in the 2008 tournament.
• Excluding penalty shoot-outs, Italy are unbeaten in their last nine EURO matches (W6 D3). Their longest run without losing a match in EURO history is ten matches (1968-1988).
• Italy have scored at least one goal in their last nine EURO matches.
• Italy have lost their opening match in only one of their previous ten EURO appearances (W4 D5). That was a 3-0 defeat against the Netherlands in 2008.
• Italy have scored the first goal in nine of their last ten EURO group stage matches.
• Italy have won the previous four matches between these two teams. Most recently, a 3-1 victory in Albania in a friendly in November 2022.

• This is Albania’s second EURO appearance, with their previous participation being at EURO 2016.
• Albania won one and lost two of their group matches at EURO 2016. They recorded a 1-0 victory against Romania in their last match of the group stage.
• Albania were unbeaten in their last seven matches in qualifying for EURO 2024 (W4 D3).
• Albania kept four clean sheets in their last seven matches in qualifying for EURO 2024.

ITALY VS ALBANIA PREDICTION

Luciano Spalletti is a progressive, front foot coach that will want Italy to play in a similar way to how they progressed through UEFA EURO 2020 under Roberto Mancini. The Azzurri have technical quality sprinkled through their team but the lack of real quality operators in attack, such as Lorenzo Insigne and Domenico Berardi from three years ago, could be their undoing. Albania will be rigid and will set themselves up to be extremely difficult to beat but Italy should still have more than enough for them.

ITALY VS ALBANIA TIP: ITALY TO WIN